Polls show NPP Flagbearers Losing Grip on Loyal Voters
By Nelson Ayivor
The opposition New Patriotic Party (NPP) is entering the 2028 electoral cycle under a cloud of internal disunity and waning voter confidence, according to new polling data from Global InfoAnalytics.
The findings suggest that the party’s two leading presidential hopefuls, former Vice President Mahamudu Bawumia and former Assin Central MP Kennedy Agyapong are trailing significantly behind key figures in the governing National Democratic Congress (NDC), raising concerns about the NPP’s electoral viability.
Executive Director of Global InfoAnalytics, Mussa Dankwah, described the results as a warning signal for the NPP, which continues to grapple with factional tensions nearly a year after its defeat in the 2024 general elections.
The data shows that NDC Finance Minister Dr Cassiel Ato Forson, Education Minister Haruna Iddrisu, NDC Chairman Johnson Asiedu Nketia, and Chief of Staff Julius Debrah all outperform Bawumia and Agyapong in head-to-head matchups.
The polling reveals a troubling pattern of voter defection within the NPP’s base. If Bawumia leads the party, 21% of Kennedy Agyapong’s supporters would vote for Ato Forson instead.
Similar defections are observed in matchups against Haruna Iddrisu (17%), Asiedu Nketia (17%), and Julius Debrah (14%).
Kennedy Agyapong fares only marginally better in retaining Bawumia-aligned voters. In a hypothetical contest against Ato Forson, 13% of Bawumia supporters would cross over. Against Haruna Iddrisu, the figure rises to 15%, while Asiedu Nketia and Julius Debrah attract 9% and 7% respectively.
The data underscores a persistent fragmentation within the NPP, rooted in the unresolved rivalry between Bawumia and Agyapong that dominated the party’s 2023 flagbearer contest.
Dankwah warned that the NPP faces “a serious unity deficit” that could undermine its comeback prospects in 2028. “Early warning data shows they could be severely divided in the general election,” he said.
The NPP’s post-2024 recovery efforts have been hampered by lingering public dissatisfaction over economic management and governance fatigue.
The party’s inability to project a coherent alternative to the NDC’s fiscal reforms has left it vulnerable to defections, particularly among swing voters and disillusioned loyalists.
Meanwhile, the NDC appears to be consolidating its appeal. Dr Ato Forson’s strong polling performance reflects growing public confidence in his stewardship of the economy, an issue that proved decisive in the last election.
Haruna Iddrisu, Asiedu Nketia, and Julius Debrah also registered notable cross-party support, reinforcing perceptions of the NDC as a stable and organized governing force.
Global InfoAnalytics’ polling has become a key barometer of political sentiment in Ghana, particularly in post-election periods marked by realignment and strategic recalibration.
Dankwah emphasized that the findings should be viewed as diagnostic rather than predictive, offering the NPP an opportunity to address internal weaknesses before the next electoral test.
With the 2028 elections on the horizon, the NPP’s challenge is not merely electoral it is existential.
The party must resolve its leadership rifts, rebuild its credibility, and convince voters that it is capable of governing in a new political landscape shaped by economic recovery and institutional reform.