By Nelson Ayivor
Fresh polling data released by Global InfoAnalytics indicates that Hajia Amina Adam is leading the race to become the National Democratic Congress candidate in the upcoming Ayawaso East parliamentary by election, with 58 percent support among general voters.
The findings place her well ahead of her closest contender, Baba Jamal Mohammed Ahmed, who is polling at 32 percent, as the party prepares to hold its primary ahead of the March 3, 2026 by election.
The Ayawaso East seat became vacant following the death of the National Democratic Congress sitting Member of Parliament, Mahama Naser Toure, on January 4, 2026.
In line with constitutional requirements, the Electoral Commission has scheduled a by election and announced that nominations will be received from February 9 to February 11 at the Ayawaso East Municipal office.
Candidates are required to pay a filing fee of ten thousand Ghana cedis, with a reduced fee of seven thousand five hundred cedis for female candidates and persons with disabilities. As the party that has historically held the seat, the NDC is holding its parliamentary primary today, Saturday, February 7, 2026.
Five aspirants are contesting the ticket, including Hajia Amina Adam, the widow of the late MP, Baba Jamal Mohammed Ahmed, Ghana’s High Commissioner to Nigeria, Dr Yakubu Azindow, Mohammed Ramne, the NDC constituency chairman, and Najib Mohammed Sani, a party member who has campaigned on youth and women empowerment.
Amina’s Lead Extends to Party’s Internal Structures
The analysis, authored by Executive Director of Global InfoAnalytics Mussa Dankwah, suggests that Hajia Amina Adam’s lead is not limited to general voter sentiment but extends into the party’s internal structures.
Mussa Dankwah explained that the poll points to a strong correlation between the views of general voters, NDC supporters and NDC delegates within the constituency, increasing the likelihood that the primary outcome will reflect the broader public mood.
To assess the resilience of Hajia Amina Adam’s lead, Global InfoAnalytics applied predictive models based on delegate responses to key internal issues that have surfaced during the campaign.
One of these relates to concerns raised by sections of the party over whether Hajia Amina should have contested the primary because of customary iddah considerations following the death of her husband.
When responses to this question were factored into the model, Hajia Amina still emerged ahead with 50 percent, while Baba Jamal’s projected support rose to 38 percent. According to Mussa Dankwah, this suggests that although the issue had some impact, it was not significant enough to derail her overall chances.
A second model examined delegate reactions to matters arising from the vetting process. In this scenario, Hajia Amina’s projected support increased to 54 percent, with Baba Jamal at 35 percent.
Amina’s Dominance Reinforced among Party Delegates
The findings indicate that perceptions surrounding vetting did not weaken her standing and may, in fact, have reinforced her position among party delegates. The NDC primary will be conducted on a first past the post basis, meaning that the aspirant who secures a simple majority will win the nomination outright.
Based on the polling data, Mussa Dankwah noted that Hajia Amina Adam currently holds an advantage that places her within striking distance of a clear victory, should the trends observed in the surveys translate into votes on primary day.
Beyond the internal NDC contest, the Ayawaso East by election is shaping up to be competitive. The New Patriotic Party has announced its intention to contest the seat, although the party is yet to confirm whether it will organise a primary or select a candidate through internal consultations.
Some reports have mentioned Baba Ali as a possible NPP contender, but no official nomination has been announced. The Liberal Party of Ghana has already selected Ibrahim Iddrisu as its candidate for the by election.
According to Mussa Dankwah, the outcome of the NDC primary in Ayawaso East could have implications beyond the constituency. If the predictions hold, it may influence how the party’s leadership models voter behaviour and delegate alignment in future internal contests, including those leading up to the 2028 general elections.
The constituency, he noted, offers a useful case study in how sympathy, candidate profile and internal party dynamics interact in shaping electoral outcomes. With day to go before the NDC primary, campaigning has intensified, and aspirants are making final appeals to delegates.
While last minute shifts cannot be ruled out, the data so far suggests that Hajia Amina Adam enters the contest as the frontrunner, with a lead that has withstood scrutiny across multiple analytical scenarios.