– But Cocoa Crash Looms Over Recovery
By Nelson Ayivor
The Bank of Ghana is basking in a rare windfall, with gross international reserves hitting $11.41 billion in October 2025 up sharply from $9.11 billion at year-end 2024 buoyed by a glittering gold export surge and prudent monetary tweaks under Governor Ernest Addison.
The Bank of Ghana’s latest economic snapshot paints a picture of external resilience: Net reserves climbed to $9.32 billion, affording 4.8 months of import cover, well above the three-month benchmark.
This buffer, amassed through $2 billion in strategic FX purchases, has shielded the economy from commodity swings and global rate hikes, while the cedi roared back with a 34.9% year-to-date appreciation against the dollar easing from GHS 15.30 to GHS 10.90 per USD.
Driving the turnaround? A blockbuster trade surplus ballooning to $8.54 billion January-October, more than doubling the prior year’s $3.77 billion. Exports rocketed to $23.33 billion, led by gold’s $15.25 billion haul fueled by global prices leaping 53.5% to $4,054 per ounce.
Cocoa added $2.82 billion despite a 43.8% price plunge to $6,111 per tonne, oil chipped in $2.20 billion (amid Brent’s dip to $64), and other goods $3.06 billion. Imports, at $14.80 billion, grew moderately, keeping the surplus humming at 9.7% of GDP.
Remittances provided a steady $5.98 billion inflow through September, while capital accounts saw $1.92 billion in net gains bolstered by $1.46 billion in direct investments, though portfolio flows stayed tepid at -$137 million post-debt restructuring.
BoG’s policy pivot from a 28% rate in March to 21.5% by September anchored inflation’s dive to 8% from 23.5%, supercharging equity markets in the process.
Yet beneath the gloss, vulnerabilities simmer. Gold’s bonanza masks cocoa’s woes and oil’s softness; a price reversal could erode the current account fast. With fiscal 2026 on the horizon, Accra must diversify beyond commodities to lock in these gains lest the boom prove fleeting in a volatile global arena.