By Leo Nelson
The Ghana Stock Exchange’s extraordinary rally, delivering 78 percent returns in just over two months, has confounded sceptics and delighted investors. But the geopolitical storm gathering over the Middle East threatens to test whether domestic fundamentals can withstand global shocks.
When coordinated strikes erupted on February 28 involving the United States, Israel, and Iran, international markets braced for turbulence. Oil prices spiked toward the $120 per barrel range on fears of Strait of Hormuz disruptions. Emerging market currencies wobbled. Capital fled to safe havens.
Yet in Accra, the Ghana Stock Exchange Composite Index (GSE-CI) barely blinked. By March 13, it had breached the historic 15,000-point mark, closing at 15,611.32. The Financial Stocks Index surged even harder, up 118 percent year-to-date. Market capitalisation swelled past GH¢292 billion.
For investors watching from London or Johannesburg, the divergence raises a question: is Ghana decoupled from global risk, or simply lagging?
Gifty Annor-Sika Asantewah, president of Women in Forex Ghana and a seasoned market observer, argues the rally rests on genuinely improved domestic foundations. “Ghana’s 2025 macroeconomic recovery efforts – inflation down, strong cedi appreciation earlier, debt default exit – are carrying momentum into 2026,” she told The New Republic.
The numbers support her case. Banking stocks have led gains, with GCB Bank attracting heavy local and institutional buying. MTN Ghana, the telecommunications giant, has also featured prominently among top performers. Mining counters, particularly gold producers, have benefited from safe-haven demand triggered by the very conflict unsettling other markets.
Yet the war’s transmission channels are already visible beneath the surface performance. Annor-Sika Asantewah points to rising risk premiums for emerging-market assets as global investors reassess positions. “Broader African and global equity indices have faced pressure,” she notes. “Any sustained oil spike could squeeze corporate margins in transportation, manufacturing, and consumer goods sectors listed on the GSE.”
The oil arithmetic is unforgiving for net importers like Ghana. With fuel pricing deregulated, global shocks transmit quickly to domestic pumps, then ripple through logistics chains and manufacturing costs. Companies face a familiar dilemma: absorb higher expenses or pass them to consumers, risking demand destruction.
Currency markets add another layer of complexity. Geopolitical uncertainty typically drives capital toward the US dollar and gold, pressuring emerging market currencies. A weaker cedi increases import costs for listed companies, potentially eating into profits.
For now, domestic factors have outweighed these external headwinds. But Annor-Sika Asantewah cautions that the equation could shift if conflict persists. “Financial markets are forward looking. Investors constantly evaluate risk and opportunity. If the conflict escalates or disrupts global energy supply significantly, the pressure on emerging markets could intensify.”
The mining sector presents a partial exception. Gold’s traditional role as a crisis hedge has boosted prices, benefiting producers listed on the GSE. “Whenever geopolitical tensions escalate, gold prices tend to rise as investors look for safety,” she explains. “Companies connected to gold production like Newgold ETF can benefit from this environment.”
Yet even this dynamic carries risks. A prolonged conflict that tips major economies toward recession could reduce industrial demand for commodities, eventually weighing on prices. And the liquidity challenges affecting smaller frontier markets could persist regardless of sectoral performance.
The broader question for Accra’s policymakers is whether the current rally represents a durable shift in investor sentiment or a temporary reprieve before global headwinds strengthen. The government’s post-default debt restructuring and IMF programme have restored a measure of confidence, but external vulnerabilities remain.
Annor-Sika Asantewah urges investors to maintain perspective. “Short-term volatility is normal in global markets. What matters most for Ghana is maintaining macroeconomic stability, strengthening reserves, and supporting productive sectors of the economy.”
Her message carries an implicit warning: domestic fundamentals have delivered impressive gains, but they cannot insulate the market entirely from global forces. The same geopolitical tensions that have boosted gold prices could, if sustained, undermine the broader economic recovery on which the rally depends.
For now, the GSE’s resilience offers a rare bright spot in a troubled region. Whether it can withstand the war-driven risks ahead will depend on factors far beyond Accra’s control and on the government’s ability to maintain the policy credibility it has worked so hard to rebuild.