…NDC doubles its share
By Leo Nelson
A new political analysis by Mussa Dankwa, based on Global InfoAnalytics polling, has documented a dramatic realignment among Ghana’s high‑income voters a demographic long considered an NPP stronghold. Between October 2024 and March 2026, NPP identification among this group collapsed from 33% to 15%. The NDC, meanwhile, surged from 23% to 50%.
The 2024 vote and the memory gap
When asked before the 2024 election about their voting intentions, 52% of high‑income respondents said they would vote for Mahama, 43% for Bawumia. But post‑election polling in March 2026 tells a different story: 78% reported voting for Mahama, only 18% for Bawumia. The gap widened dramatically suggesting either late‑stage shifts or selective recall. Either way, the NPP’s loss is staggering.
Dankwa points to economic factors. The Domestic Debt Exchange Programme (DDEP) left deep scars on investor confidence and financial stability. But more immediately, he notes that currency stability under Mahama has made mortgages more affordable, and many high‑income earners have cleared housing debts. Professionals in financial services are now buying new vehicles at improved prices. These are tangible gains and voters remember who delivered them.
The polling also tested hypothetical 2028 matchups. Against Bawumia:
· Cassiel Ato Forson leads 72% to 21%
· Haruna Iddrisu leads 64% to 22%
· Johnson Asiedu Nketia leads 63% to 22%
· Naana Jane Opoku‑Agyemang leads 68% to 22%
Bawumia barely crosses 20% in any scenario. That is not a close race. It is a demographic write‑off.
Dankwa warns that the NPP must develop a clear strategy to win back high‑income voters a group once loyal to its cause. But the data suggests a deeper structural problem: the party’s brand among professionals and investors has been badly damaged. The NDC, meanwhile, has an opportunity to consolidate by addressing the economic concerns of this segment.
The New Republic notes that voter loyalty is never fixed. But a swing of 35 percentage points in 18 months is not a blip it is a collapse. The NPP can no longer assume that wealth equals votes.