By Lawrence Odoom
Global cocoa prices are poised for a dramatic correction in 2026, with the World Bank projecting a precipitous drop of more than 50% after soaring to historic zeniths in recent years, according to its April 2026.
The report anticipates that cocoa will tumble from approximately $7.80 per kilogram in 2025 to “roughly $3.80 per kilogram in 2026,” a staggering 51.3% contraction, before recovering marginally to “around $4.20 per kilogram in 2027.”
The forecasted slump reflects expectations that global supply will progressively rebound following acute shortages that propelled prices to unprecedented heights over the past two years.
The envisions a broader deceleration in beverage commodity prices, with its beverage price index which tracks cocoa and coffee “falling significantly in 2026 after surging in 2024 and 2025.”
“According to the projections, cocoa was among the commodities that experienced extraordinary price spikes during the recent supply crisis,” the report noted. “However, improving production conditions and a gradual adjustment in global supply chains are expected to ease market pressures going forward.”
Despite the anticipated downturn, the World Bank cautioned that cocoa prices may remain “relatively elevated compared with historical averages,” underscoring persistent volatility within agricultural commodity markets.
For dominant producers such as Ghana and Côte d’Ivoire which collectively command the lion’s share of global cocoa output the projected price erosion could reverberate through export revenues and farmer livelihoods, particularly if production surges in tandem with falling prices.
The report further emphasized that broader commodity markets “are likely to remain sensitive to global economic growth trends, geopolitical developments and weather-related shocks that affect agricultural output.”
Analysts say the outlook signals an urgent imperative for cocoa-dependent economies to accelerate value-addition, diversify revenue streams, and fortify farm-level resilience against price vicissitudes.