By Prince Ahenkorah
A new poll from Global InfoAnalytics has dropped a grenade into Ghana’s cocoa politics, revealing that a majority of farmers actually accept the government’s steep producer price cut even as opposition figures denounce it as a betrayal of the rural heartland.
The numbers are stark. When the government slashed the price of a 64kg bag of cocoa from GH¢3,625 to GH¢2,587 a reduction of GH¢1,038 per bag the public outcry was predictable. Opposition parties framed it as an attack on the livelihoods of smallholder farmers. Civil society groups warned of political repercussions in cocoa-growing regions.
But the poll, shared by analyst Musa Dankwa, tells a more complicated story. Among cocoa farmers surveyed, 56% consider the new price fair. Only 11% deem it unfair, with 33% neutral. For an administration bracing for rural discontent, the numbers offer unexpected breathing room.
Yet beneath the national averages lie sharp regional fissures that could yet prove politically treacherous. The Western North region a crucial cocoa belt and political battleground registered the highest dissatisfaction, with 62% of respondents rejecting the price cut as unfair. Slim majorities in Ahafo, Ashanti, Bono, Greater Accra, Northern, and Western North also view the price negatively.
These are not minor regions. Ashanti and Western North are electoral heavyweights. If dissatisfaction there translates into voter mobilisation, the political calculus could shift dramatically.
The poll confirms what political operatives already know: cocoa pricing is viewed through partisan lenses. Among NPP supporters, 53% believe the cut is unfair a striking rejection of their own government’s policy. Only 24% of the ruling party’s base considers it fair.
Among NDC supporters, by contrast, 61% view the price as fair, with just 14% opposing it. The floating voters those coveted undecideds align more closely with the NDC perspective, with 42% rating the price fair and 29% unfair.
This inversion where the ruling party’s base is more critical than the opposition’s suggests either that NPP supporters hold their government to higher standards, or that the policy has exposed internal fractures in the ruling coalition.
Government insiders defend the cut as fiscal necessity. COCOBOD, they argue, faces serious financial constraints. The previous price was unsustainable, threatening the entire cocoa sector’s stability. A lower producer price, however painful, preserves the board’s capacity to function and ensures continued purchases.
The poll suggests this argument has gained traction at least among farmers themselves. The 56% acceptance rate among those directly affected indicates that many understand the broader economics, even as they absorb the immediate pain.
For the Mahama administration, the poll presents a nuanced picture. The general acceptance among farmers is politically useful it undercuts opposition narratives of rural betrayal. But the regional discontent in key areas cannot be ignored.
Western North’s 62% rejection rate is particularly concerning. The region, carved from the old Western Region in 2018, has become a political bellwether. If cocoa farmers there mobilise against the government, the electoral consequences could ripple across the southwest.
The poll’s most intriguing finding may be the high neutral response 33% among farmers, 26% among the general population. This suggests a significant segment either unconvinced by the debate or waiting to see how the policy plays out in practice.
These neutrals are the real battleground. The government’s ability to implement the price cut smoothly ensuring payments reach farmers, maintaining input supplies, avoiding smuggling to Côte d’Ivoire will determine whether they shift into acceptance or rejection.
Ghana’s cocoa pricing cannot be viewed in isolation. Across the border, Ivorian farmers receive prices determined by a joint Ghana-Côte d’Ivoire framework. If the differential widens too far, smuggling pressures intensify. The government’s calculation appears to prioritise systemic stability over short-term popularity.
Whether farmers in Western North will accept that logic remains to be seen. The poll suggests many currently do not. The government now faces a race against time: implement effectively, communicate constantly, and hope that by election season, the pain of today becomes the stability of tomorrow.
As one cocoa sector insider put it: “Farmers aren’t stupid. They know when a system is broken. The question is whether they believe this government can fix it.”