as geopolitical risk hardens
TNR Files
Brent crude surged to $99.33 a barrel on Wednesday, its fourth consecutive daily gain, as renewed military strikes across the Middle East intensified fears of supply disruptions and brought the psychological $100 threshold within reach.
The latest escalation Houthi attacks on Saudi cities, US strikes on Iranian tankers, and Iran’s retaliation against a US base in Jordan has shattered any remaining hopes for a quick peace deal after six months of conflict. Brent has jumped a quarter since early August, and analysts warn the risk premium is now deeply embedded.
Saudi Arabia has reportedly diverted some crude exports away from the Strait of Hormuz, a critical global chokepoint. ING analysts noted that “recent developments only reinforce the view that we are still some way from a restart in peace talks,” while OCBC flagged fears of another prolonged disruption after attacks on Saudi energy facilities and the destruction of five Iranian tankers.
With Brent hovering just below $100, markets are braced for further spikes should fighting intensify a prospect that keeps traders and policymakers on edge.