By Prince Ahenkorah
Fitch Solutions has projected that Ghana’s economy is likely to remain largely insulated from the effects of the ongoing US- Isreal and Iran conflict, due to high gold prices and strong foreign exchange inflows from exports.
In its latest report, the global research and credit rating firm highlighted that despite a 14% drop in gold prices worldwide since the conflict erupted in late February 2026, caused by rising US yields, tighter monetary policy expectations, and a stronger US dollar, the March 27 spot price of US$4,413 per ounce is still nearly three times the average price between 2015 and 2024, which was US$1,603 per ounce.
Fitch’s Commodities team maintains a bullish outlook, forecasting gold to average US$4,600 per ounce this year, marking the highest annual average on record and a 33.7% increase compared to the 2025 average of US$3,442 per ounce.
The firm noted that Ghana’s economy stands to benefit from these elevated gold prices, which will help offset potential negative impacts from the geopolitical tensions.
Strong export-related foreign exchange inflows and the country’s broadly neutral net oil trade position are expected to ease pressure on the external account and stabilize the cedi.
Furthermore, prior fiscal consolidation measures and the recently implemented gold royalty regime are anticipated to keep fiscal pressures under control.
As Africa’s largest gold producer, Ghana is expected to see substantial inflows of dollars over the coming months. This is bolstered by a projected 7.1% increase in gold output, particularly from key mining sites including Bibiani, Chirano, and Namdini.
Fitch predicts that revenue from gold exports will rise by 12.9%, reaching US$23.7 billion, equivalent to 1.5% of GDP and significantly higher than the 2010–2024 average of 0.9%.
Meanwhile, Ghana’s hydrocarbon trade is expected to remain largely balanced. The research firm emphasized that recent spikes in global energy prices are unlikely to significantly affect the country’s current account position, providing further support for economic stability amid international tensions.
Fitch’s analysis suggests that Ghana is well-positioned to navigate the ripple effects of the US- Isreal and Iran conflict, with gold exports, fiscal discipline, and export resilience forming the backbone of its economic stability.