…but pre‑crisis levels remain distant
By Prince Ahenkorah
Global oil markets have welcomed a conditional two‑week ceasefire between the United States and Iran, which includes the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Benchmark Brent crude dropped over 15% to below $92 per barrel, with US crude trading just under $94. The reversal follows weeks of panic driven by Iran’s threats to target vessels in the strategic waterway, in retaliation for US‑Israeli airstrikes.
But relief is relative. Before tensions escalated on 28 February, crude traded at approximately $70 per barrel. At $92, prices remain 31% above pre‑conflict levels. The ceasefire is conditional and temporary. Any renewed hostilities will send prices soaring again.
For Ghana, the global shock has already translated into pump prices. Effective 1 April 2026, the National Petroleum Authority (NPA) approved a sharp increase: petrol rose about 15% to GH¢13.30 per litre, diesel surged nearly 19% to GH¢17.10. These are among the steepest monthly adjustments in recent memory.
The timing is awkward. Businesses and households are still recovering from the post‑IMF stabilisation. Transport fares, production costs, and ultimately inflation will feel the pressure.
If the ceasefire holds and the Strait of Hormuz remains open, Ghana could see some reduction in the next pricing window. The cedi’s relative stability a rare bright spot under the Mahama administration has already cushioned consumers from even steeper hikes. Without that, the increases would have been worse.
But New Republic notes two risks. First, the ceasefire is only two weeks old and conditional. Second, global oil markets remain tight. Ghana’s fuel price relief is not assured. The NPA and the finance ministry should be preparing for volatility, not celebrating a trend reversal. For now, consumers pay more and may continue to do so.