The Ghana Stock Exchange (GSE) has defied regional and domestic headwinds to close the first half of 2025 on a stellar note, with the Composite Index soaring to 6,347.47 points—an impressive year-to-date return of 29.84%.
The GSE Financial Stocks Index (GSE-FSI) fared even better, posting a 43.03% gain and closing at 3,405.34 points. Market capitalization reached GHS137.5 billion, underscoring investors’ renewed confidence in equities as a hedge against inflation and currency depreciation.
To understand what this momentum portends for the second half of the year, The New Republic engaged Ms. Gifty Annor-Sika Asantewah, President of Women in Forex Ghana (WiFG) and a respected market analyst, who offered an in-depth perspective on the drivers behind the rally and her projections for the rest of 2025.
According to Asantewah, the first-half rally was a “testament to both the resilience of listed companies and improved domestic liquidity.”
She explained that the banking sector, which had faced asset quality concerns in previous years, benefited from reforms and recapitalization efforts that restored investor trust.
“The surge in the GSE-FSI, up more than 43%, clearly reflects a recalibration of valuations and a recognition of stronger fundamentals in the financial sector,” she said.
Asantewah also highlighted how non-financial stocks contributed significantly to the rally. “MTN Ghana and NewGold ETF offered consistency in earnings and dividends, providing stability amid broader economic uncertainties,” she observed.
Asked about her expectations for the second half of 2025, Ms. Asantewah projected that equities could further extend gains, though at a moderated pace. “The valuations are no longer depressed as they were in early 2024, so I expect a period of consolidation followed by selective upside,” she said,
pointing to several tailwinds likely to support further growth.
“MTN Ghana remains the most liquid and widely held stock on the GSE. Its robust data revenues and mobile money ecosystem will underpin stable cash flows. I anticipate further upside, especially if the company announces incremental dividend payouts,” Asantewah stated.
Access Bank Ghana, Republic Bank Ghana, and CalBank according to Asantewah are expected to drive investor interest on the back of improved loan recovery and higher net interest margins. “The banking sector is transitioning from a period of cautious lending to measured growth, which could further strengthen profitability,” she observed.
She also cited Guinness Ghana Breweries and Fan Milk as stocks likely to attract demand as consumer spending recovers. “Increased disposable income from wage adjustments and lower inflationary pressures could spur volume growth,” she remarked.
However, Ms. Asantewah cautioned that the second half of 2025 is not without risks. She identified global monetary tightening as a critical factor to watch.
“If US interest rates remain elevated, offshore investors may reduce exposure to frontier markets. This could weigh on liquidity and dampen momentum,” she pointed out.
Domestically, she said policy clarity would be essential, particularly regarding fiscal consolidation measures and tax reforms. “Market sentiment is highly sensitive to government signals. Investors want reassurance that the path to debt sustainability will not come at the expense of corporate profitability,” she explained.
Despite potential headwinds, Ms. Asantewah believes the GSE’s underlying fundamentals remain supportive of medium-term gains.
“The market is transitioning from recovery to expansion. While we may not see another 40% surge in the financial index in H2, I expect the Composite Index to end the year with a total return of between 35% and 38%,” she noted.
On sector allocation, she advised investors to maintain balanced exposure. “I would overweight telecoms and financials but also include select consumer staples for diversification,” she recommended.
For retail investors, Ms. Asantewah emphasized discipline. “The temptation to chase momentum is understandable, but it is important to prioritize quality, liquidity, and dividend track records,” she advised.
In her closing remark, Ms. Asantewah underscored the broader significance of the GSE’s resurgence.
“This performance is not only about short-term profits. It signals that Ghana’s capital markets are maturing. If regulators and policymakers maintain reforms and transparency, equities can become the backbone of long-term wealth creation,’ she explained.
As the GSE embarks on the second half of 2025, optimism remains palpable, but so does the need for vigilance. Investors, buoyed by record first-half gains, will be watching closely to see whether the market can deliver another chapter of outperformance.